Ontario government should walk the walk when encouraging economic growth

The Ford government released on Wednesday its 2024 fall economic statement, which provides an update to the fiscal plan presented in the Ontario provincial budget earlier this year.

Prior to the release, Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy said, “We’re doing a lot of things to try to create the environment for much greater job growth, economic growth, pay cheques.” However, saying you’re doing something and actually doing it are two different things. Continuing to run deficits, accumulate debt, and maintain high tax rates will not foster strong economic growth.

According to the fall update, the Ontario government will run a projected $6.6 billion budget deficit for the 2024-25 fiscal year—smaller than the $9.8 billion deficit originally projected in the budget. Although planned spending on programs is up approximately $5.0 billion from the budget, expected spending on debt interest declined $1.2 billion, and the province expects to collect $6.9 billion more in revenues than it had initially budgeted. In other words, although the deficit declined slightly compared to previous estimates, it’s considerably higher than it could have been had the government stuck to its original spending plan. And needing to borrow money to cover costs is still no reason to celebrate.

Moreover, this is only the province’s operating budget, which deals with day-to-day expenses such as salaries for government employees or funding for specific programs. This doesn’t include the additional funds borrowed to pay for provincial infrastructure spending, the vast majority of which are reported separately in the province’s capital budget. The 2024 fall update projects $26.3 billion of infrastructure spending this year on a series of infrastructure projects including the new Highway 413, and efforts to expand the existing Highway 401 to reduce gridlock.

As a result of this borrowing for infrastructure spending, and the Ford government’s continued inability to balance its operating budget, Ontario’s net debt (total debt minus financial assets) is expected to reach $429.0 billion by the end of 2024-25—$21.0 billion higher than at the end of 2023-24.

Ontario is already one of the most indebted provinces in the country, with a study from earlier this year estimating the province had the second-highest debt burden when measured per person—only behind Newfoundland and Labrador. The Ford government’s decision to continue racking up debt will only worsen this issue.

Also limiting economic growth are Ontario’s uncompetitively high tax rates. Research shows that Ontario maintains some of the highest personal income tax rates in both Canada and the United States, and this makes it harder for the province to attract and retain high-skilled workers such as doctors, engineers and entrepreneurs. And high tax rates lower the incentive for individuals to work, save and invest—all productive activities that promote economic growth.

The update included a onetime tax rebate to all Ontarians of $200 per person, which Premier Ford claimed will “stimulate the economy.” But this gimmicky rebate will do nothing to address the challenges posed by Ontario’s high tax rates.

Indeed, to actually stimulate the economy, the government should have reduced personal income tax rates for Ontarians—something once promised by Premier Ford. However, the update comes with no mention of meaningful income tax relief for Ontarians, signalling the government has once again failed to uphold its long-broken promise. Instead, Ontario’s continued debt accumulation actually increases the risk of future tax hikes because rising debt interest costs stretch government finances and put pressure on the government to raise more revenues.

The Ford government claims its fiscal plan will create an environment that promotes economic growth in the province, but an examination of the plan suggests otherwise. Instead of talking about promoting economic growth, the Ford government should walk the walk and implement policies that actually achieve this goal.