In its 2023 Emission Reduction Plan, the Government of Canada has committed to a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to at least 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, with an interim target set at 20 per cent below 2005 levels by 2026.

This essay evaluates Canada’s progress towards these targets by breaking down total GHG emissions into the key drivers: GHG intensity, population and incomes.

On a compound basis, if population grows on average by 1.2 per cent per year and real per capita income grows by 0.7 per cent per year, over the nine years from 2022 to 2030 they will contribute an increase of about 19 per cent to Canada’s GHG emissions. Hitting the 2030 target of 38 per cent below current emissions will require emissions intensity—the third key driver of emissions—to fall by 57 per cent over 9 years. Since it only fell by 32 per cent over the entire twenty year period between 2001 and 2022, this is an unprecedented undertaking.

Taking account of historical constraints on our ability to reduce GHG intensity and Canada’s ongoing desire to avoid both depopulation and collapsing real incomes, it is likely Canada will not meet either the 2026 or 2030 GHG targets as stated, and that any attempt to do so will cause such a large drop in living standards that the government will not be able to remain committed to the policy.