Uneven Recovery: Job Creation in Ontario’s Urban Centres between 2008 and 2018

Summary

• Past analyses from the Fraser Institute completed in 2015 and 2017 have measured labour market performance in various regions across Canada in the period during and follow¬ing the 2008/09 recession.
• This short paper updates this work with the most recent available data, focusing more narrowly on one specific metric—job creation. More specifically, it measures job creation in urban centres across Ontario.
• Ontario’s economic recovery has been un¬even. Some Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) such as Toronto and Ottawa have enjoyed com¬paratively robust job creation. Some, including London, Sudbury, Peterborough, and others have experienced weak or negative job creation between 2008 and 2018.
• In aggregate, from 2008 to 2018, the two GTA CMAs combined (Toronto and Oshawa) experienced employment growth totaling 17.3 percent. In Ottawa, this figure was 9.7 percent. By comparison, net job creation in the rest of the province over the course of this decade was just 1.9 percent.
• In total, 91 percent of all net job creation in Ontario between 2008 and 2018 occurred in either the two GTA CMAs or Ottawa. Just 9.0 percent of net job creation in Ontario during this decade occurred elsewhere in the province.