Estonia’s solution to Canada’s stagnating economic growth

A new study found that the current decline in living standards is one of the worst in Canada’s recent history. While the economy has grown, it hasn’t kept pace with Canada’s surging population, which means gross domestic product (GDP) per person is on a downward trajectory. Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, points to Canada’s productivity crisis as one of the primary reasons for this stagnation.

Productivity is a key economic indicator that measures how much output workers produce per hour of work. Rising productivity is associated with higher wages and greater standards of living, but growth in Canadian productivity has been sluggish: from 2002 to 2022 American productivity grew 160 per cent faster than Canadian productivity.

While Canada’s productivity issues are multifaceted, Rogers pointed to several sources of the problem in a recent speech. Primarily, she highlighted strong business investment as an imperative to productivity growth, and an area in which Canada has continually fallen short. There is no silver bullet to revive faltering investment, but tax reform would be a good start. Taxes can have a significant effect on business incentives and investment, but Canada’s tax system has largely stood in the way of economic progress.

With recent hikes in the capital gains tax rate and sky-high compliance costs, Canada’s taxes continue to hinder its growth. Canada’s primary competitor is the United States, which has considerably lower tax rates. Canada’s rates on personal income and businesses are similarly uncompetitive when compared to other advanced economies around the globe. Uncompetitive taxes in Canada prompt investment, businesses, and workers to relocate to jurisdictions with lower taxes.

The country of Estonia offers one of the best models for tax reform. The small Baltic state has a unique tax system that puts it at the top of the Tax Foundation’s tax competitiveness index. Estonia has lower effective tax rates than Canada—so it doesn’t discourage work the way Canada does—but more interestingly, its business tax model doesn’t punish investment the way Canada’s does.

Their business tax system is a distributed profits tax system, meaning that the only taxes corporations face are on profits they distribute to shareholders. This allows the profits of Estonian firms to be reinvested tax-free permitting higher returns for entrepreneurs.

The demand for investment is especially strong for capital-intensive companies such as information, communications, and technology (ICT) enterprises, which are some of the most productive in today’s economy. A Bank of Canada report highlighted the lack of ICT investment as a major contributor to Canada’s sluggish growth in the 21st century.

While investment is important, another ingredient to economic growth is entrepreneurship. Estonia’s tax system ensures entrepreneurs are rewarded for success and the result is that  Estonians start significantly more businesses than Canadians. In 2023, for every 1,000 people, Estonia had 17.8 business startups, while Canada had only 4.9. This trend is even worse for ICT companies, Estonians start 45 times more ICT businesses than Canadians on a per capita basis.

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor’s (GEM) 2023/24 report on entrepreneurship confirms that a large part of this difference comes from government policy and taxation. Canada ranked below Estonia on all 13 metrics of the Entrepreneurial Framework. Notably, Estonia scored above Canada when taxes, bureaucracy, burdens and regulation were measured.

While there’s no easy solution to Canada’s productivity crisis, a better tax regime wouldn’t penalize investment and entrepreneurship as much as our current system does. This would allow Canadians to be more productive, ultimately improving living standards. Estonia’s business tax system is a good example of how to promote economic growth. Examples of successful tax structures, such as Estonia’s, should prompt a conversation about how Canadian governments could improve economic outcomes for citizens.