Ontario government is anything but ‘fiscally responsible’

Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy recently penned a commentary boasting about the Ford government’s economic plan, under the headline “Ontario showing it’s possible to build infrastructure and be fiscally prudent.” But an examination of the Ford government’s track record shows that this government is anything but fiscally prudent.

Indeed, while Morningstar DBRS (one of the world’s largest credit ratings agencies) recently upgraded Ontario’s credit rating, the Ford government has consistently spent beyond its means, failed to consistently balance the budget, and has been unwilling to fulfill its promise to meaningfully reduce taxes for Ontarians.

Premier Doug Ford has overseen the second- and third-highest years of per-person (inflation-adjusted) program spending in Ontario since 1965 (the earliest year of comparable data) both when you include or exclude COVID-related spending. And the average annual rate of spending growth under Premier Ford (0.3 per cent) is nearly identical to that of Premier Kathleen Wynne (0.4 per cent).

In other words, despite heavily criticizing the Wynne government’s spending habits on the campaign trail, the Ford government’s approach to spending has been nearly identical to its predecessor.

Consequently, during its tenure the Ford government has only run one budget surplus ($2.0 billion in 2021/22), which was largely due to an unexpected surge in additional tax revenue. The following year, instead of capitalizing on this position and maintaining a balanced budget, the government simply chose to further increase spending and subsequently ran a $5.9 billion deficit in 2022/23. According to Bethlenfalvy, this is “fiscally responsible.”

This year (2024/25) the government plans to run a $9.8 billion deficit followed by a $4.6 billion deficit in 2025/26 before finally balancing the budget and running a $500 million surplus in 2026/27. This is Bethlenfalvy’s “clear plan” to budget balance. And while the government projects a surplus in 2026/27, Ontarians should take this with a grain of salt. Why? Because last year the Ford government projected surpluses of $200 million in 2024/25 and $4.4 billion in 2025/26, but now projects deficits.

Finally, in his commentary Minister Bethlenfalvy said Ontarians should be grateful that his government will “refuse to make life more unaffordable by increasing taxes and fees.” But again, after six years of governing the province, the Ford government has failed to keep its campaign promise to reduce personal income taxes for Ontarians—despite Ontarians facing some of the highest income tax rates in North America.

While an upgraded credit rating is good news, it is by no means evidence that the Ford government has been a responsible steward of provincial finances. In reality, the government has maintained near-record high spending levels, ran persistent deficits and refused to meaningfully lower taxes for working Ontarians. Based on any objective measure, that’s not a fiscally responsible record.