Numbers don’t lie—crime up significantly in Toronto and across Canada

It’s no secret that politicians often cherry-pick statistics instead of telling the full story when the full story doesn’t look great for them. For example, amid concerns of rising auto theft and crime, the federal Liberals recently highlighted that auto theft is down 17 per cent versus last year. But this statement deserves scrutiny.

It’s true, according to an insurance fraud prevention group, there was a 17 per cent year-over-year decline in auto thefts in the first half of 2024. But this doesn’t mean the number of stolen cars is low. The reason for the year-over-year decline is that auto thefts spiked significantly in 2023. While down in the first half of 2024, auto thefts remain at elevated levels relative to prior years.

For example, the Toronto Police Service reports 5,049 auto thefts in the first half of 2024—down 21 per cent year-over year, but still very high relative to the first half of 2022 (4,480 auto thefts) and the first half of 2021 (2,769 auto thefts). In light of an 82 per cent increase in auto thefts in Toronto compared to just three years ago, the Trudeau government shouldn’t celebrate too loudly its record at stopping auto theft.

In addition, cherry-picking auto theft stats ignores crime increases in other areas. In the first half of 2024 (again, according to Toronto Police Service data), assaults were up 8 per cent year-over-year, breaking and entering was up 6 per cent, homicides were up 36 per cent, robberies were up 21 per cent, and sexual violations were up 17 per cent.

And it’s not just Toronto.

Take York Region as another example. Faced with criticism that violent crime had risen dramatically in Ontario since the Liberals took office, a Liberal MP from York Region called such criticism “false and misleading” and declared “our community is safe,” citing the York Region Police’s published crime statistics. But what do York Region crime statistics actually show?

Like in Toronto, in the first half of 2024 auto thefts were down significantly versus the first half of 2023, and weapons violations and sexual violations were also down. However, assaults, breaking and entering, drug violations and robberies were all up. And again, the longer-term trend shows most types of crime on the rise. Despite the decline versus 2023, in the first half of 2024 auto thefts were 120 per cent higher than in 2021. And compared to 2021, the first half of 2024 in York Region saw 58 per cent more assaults, 99 per cent more breaking and entering incidents, 193 per cent more robberies, 69 per cent more firearm violations and 51 per cent more violations with other weapons.

Across Canada, That’s just a fact. Statistics Canada’s violent crime severity index in 2023 was 41 per cent higher than in 2014, and a recent report from the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute revealed a surge in violent crime in Canada’s largest urban centres.

However you crunch the numbers, the Trudeau government’s record on crime is nothing to boast about.