Current Ontario government poised to outspend predecessor and increase provincial debt

Ford Government Plans to Outspend Wynne Government

Summary

• When it was in opposition, the Progres­sive Conservative Party of Ontario frequently criticized the fiscal records of previous Liberal governments and repeatedly committed to reducing spending, balancing the budget, and reducing the province’s debt burden.
• However, many areas of fiscal policy have been characterized by continuity rather than change since the Ford government took office. This bulletin considers the Ford government’s Budget 2022, which laid out the fiscal plan for Ontario through 2024/25.
• We find that the Ford government generally maintained higher per-capita inflation-adjust­ed spending during its first term in office than prevailed under Premier Wynne. Further, Bud­get 2022 suggests that the Ford government plans to further increase spending in its second term in office.
• Largely as a result of this spending trajec­tory, Budget 2022 forecasts that Ontario will continue to run operating deficits in the years ahead.
• The Ford government forecasts that the pace of debt growth will largely continue along the same trajectory as under Premier Wynne.
• If the Ford government is to fulfill its early promises of bringing sustainability to Ontario’s finances it will need to change course during its second term in office. Budget 2022, however, suggests that the government is not planning any such change—that continuity rather than change is likely to characterize provincial fiscal policy for the foreseeable future.