— Sep 28, 2021

An Assessment of Recent Economic Performance and Business Investment Growth in Ontario finds that the average rate of economic growth from 2000 to 2019 (excluding 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic) was weaker in Ontario than it was in the other large Canadian provinces. In fact, Ontario’s rate of business investment growth over the same period was the third lowest in Canada ahead of just New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Repairing Alberta's Heritage Fund for the Long Term

— Aug 19, 2021

Repairing Alberta's Heritage Fund for the Long Term finds that the Alberta government can learn from Alaska and introduce better rules for the province’s Heritage Fund, which would include inflation-proofing the fund and paying dividends to Alberta residents.

What Happens If Alberta Returns to the Flat Tax System?

— Jul 20, 2021

What Happens If Alberta Returns to the Flat Tax System? find that the Alberta government can reinstate a 10 per cent single-rate personal income tax and restore the “Alberta Tax Advantage” while incurring only a modest loss in revenue.

A New (Old) Fiscal Rule for Non-Renewable Resource Revenue in Alberta

— Jun 15, 2021

A New (Old) Fiscal Rule for Non-Renewable Resource Revenue in Alberta is a new study that examines how Alberta’s budget deficits and mounting debt are due in part to its treatment of non-renewable resource revenue in the budget. The study recommends reinstating fiscal rules that require a certain amount of resource revenues be saved in order to stabilize provincial finances.

Ford Government Fiscal Policy Approach Mirrors that of McGuinty and Wynne

— Jun 8, 2021

Ford Government Fiscal Policy Approach Mirrors that of McGuinty and Wynne finds that the current Ontario government is continuing the fiscal approach of the previous Wynne and McGuinty governments, excluding emergency COVID spending. In fact, according to 2021 budget forecasts, over the next three years government spending (minus interest costs) will increase by a cumulative total of 8.5 per cent compared to 6.6 per cent from 2010 to 2012.

Measuring Ontario’s Regional Prosperity Gap

— Apr 27, 2021

Measuring Ontario’s Regional Prosperity Gap is a new study that compares average incomes in Ontario, Quebec and eight American states in the Great Lakes region. It finds that in 2019, Ontario’s GDP per person trailed neighbouring Michigan by nearly $4,000, and in fact, Ontario lags the regional average GDP per person by $16,607, or 27.1 per cent.

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Recent Provincial Prosperity Commentaries and Blog Posts

Outflow of Albertans should set off alarm bells

Tegan Hill, Alex Whalen

Appeared in the Calgary Sun, October 13, 2021

Unlike Texas, Alberta government finances deteriorated due to spending-fuelled budget deficits.

Alberta’s upcoming referendum bigger than equalization

Tegan Hill, Niels Veldhuis

Appeared in National Newswatch, October 12, 2021

Reforms in the 1990s led to a marked decline in welfare dependency and reduced spending on social assistance.

Understanding two decades of weak economic performance in Ontario

Ben Eisen

It’s important for policymakers to recognize the severity of Ontario’s growth problem, how long-lived it has been, and the challenge of weak business investment that could impede future growth.

Ontario’s economy—slow growth and weak business investment

Ben Eisen

Real per-person economic growth was 9.1 per cent in Ontario compared to 26.1 per cent in the rest of Canada.

Despite smaller projected budget deficit, Albertans can’t afford to discount province’s fiscal challenges

Tegan Hill

Appeared in the Calgary Sun, September 22, 2021

A boost in projected revenues this year have reduced the expected deficit for 2021/22, but this will only provide a small amount of relief.

Alberta government should use unexpected windfall to stop resource rollercoaster

Tegan Hill, Steve Lafleur

Appeared in the Calgary Sun, September 8, 2021

By limiting the amount of resource revenue included in the budget, the fund could restore discipline to government spending.

Report paints bleak picture of Alberta’s fiscal future

Ben Eisen

Appeared in the Edmonton Sun, September 1, 2021

The province's per-person spending is significantly higher than in Ontario, B.C. and Quebec.

With higher oil prices, Alberta government must avoid fiscal mistakes of the past

Tegan Hill

The price of Brent Crude oil could reach US$100 per barrel in 2022 due to a surge in demand.

Dividends to Albertans would ensure better maintenance of Heritage Fund

Tegan Hill

Appeared in the Edmonton Journal, August 19, 2021

If Alberta had followed Alaska’s model, Albertans could have received $101.5 billion in dividends.

Alberta needs robust fiscal rules that survive tough times

Tegan Hill

Appeared in the Calgary Sun, August 18, 2021

By making fiscal rules constitutional in nature, governments can protect them from being ignored.

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Provincial Prosperity

An Assessment of Recent Economic Performance and Business Investment Growth in Ontario

Repairing Alberta's Heritage Fund for the Long Term

What Happens If Alberta Returns to the Flat Tax System?

A New (Old) Fiscal Rule for Non-Renewable Resource Revenue in Alberta

Ford Government Fiscal Policy Approach Mirrors that of McGuinty and Wynne

Measuring Ontario’s Regional Prosperity Gap

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