Ontario Prosperity

Learning from Ontario’s Past: How Ontario Can Avoid Another Post-Recession Debt Binge

— Mar 31, 2022

Learning from Ontario’s Past: How Ontario Can Avoid Another Post-Recession Debt Binge is a new study that focuses on how the provincial government could balance the budget by 2022/23, and what mistakes made by past governments should be avoided to ensure fiscal stability. Based on recent projections, the provincial government would need to reduce annual spending by $9.1 billion from its 2021/22 level to balance the budget in 2022/23—a 4.8 per cent decrease.

Measuring Ontario’s Regional Prosperity Gap, 2022 Update

— Feb 1, 2022

Measuring Ontario’s Regional Prosperity Gap: 2022 Update is a new study that compares average incomes in Ontario, Quebec and eight American states in the Great Lakes region. It finds that in 2020, Ontario’s GDP per person trailed neighbouring Michigan by over $6,000, and in fact, Ontario lags the regional average GDP per person by $19,219 or 32.7 per cent.

Uneven Job Creation in Ontario’s Urban Centres from 2008 to 2019

— Jan 5, 2022

Uneven Job creation in Ontario’s Urban Centres from 2008 to 2019 finds that despite the rate of job creation in the Toronto and Ottawa areas exceeding the national average, most other Ontario cities, towns and rural areas experienced little or no job growth since the 2008/09 recession.

The Implications of an Aging Population for Government Finances in Ontario

— Nov 9, 2021

The Implications of an Aging Population for Government Finances in Ontario is a new study that finds health-care expenditures in the province will increase by an estimated 4.1 per cent annually (on average) over the next 20 years, and as a result of Ontario’s changing demographics, the province may not balance its budget until at least 2040/41 unless it makes changes to its spending.

An Assessment of Recent Economic Performance and Business Investment Growth in Ontario

— Sep 28, 2021

An Assessment of Recent Economic Performance and Business Investment Growth in Ontario finds that the average rate of economic growth from 2000 to 2019 (excluding 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic) was weaker in Ontario than it was in the other large Canadian provinces. In fact, Ontario’s rate of business investment growth over the same period was the third lowest in Canada ahead of just New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Ford Government Fiscal Policy Approach Mirrors that of McGuinty and Wynne

— Jun 8, 2021

Ford Government Fiscal Policy Approach Mirrors that of McGuinty and Wynne finds that the current Ontario government is continuing the fiscal approach of the previous Wynne and McGuinty governments, excluding emergency COVID spending. In fact, according to 2021 budget forecasts, over the next three years government spending (minus interest costs) will increase by a cumulative total of 8.5 per cent compared to 6.6 per cent from 2010 to 2012.

Recent Ontario Prosperity Commentaries and Blog Posts

Ontario's economic decline hurting household incomes

Ben Eisen

The province's median income increased by just 5.4 per cent—less than half the overall growth rate across Canada.

Income numbers tell tale of economic decline in Windsor and London

Ben Eisen, Steve Lafleur

Southwestern Ontario’s two largest cities went from the top third to the bottom third for median income in Canada.

Ontario set to fall far short of homebuilding goal

Josef Filipowicz, Steve Lafleur

Among Canada’s largest metropolitan areas, the three with the fewest housing units per 1,000 were in Ontario.

Ontario government once again refuses to reduce taxes for workers and businesses

Jake Fuss

Appeared in the Toronto Sun, March 24, 2023

The budget plan lacks a comprehensive vision to enhance the province's competitiveness.

Ontario’s budget includes path to balance, but party with taxpayer money is not over

Jake Fuss

The budget projects a deficit of $1.3 billion this year.

Ontario government should learn from B.C.’s debt bomb

Ben Eisen, Jake Fuss

Ontario's government debt has reached nearly $400 billion.

To restore Ontario’s finances, Ford government must end carefree spending

Jake Fuss

Appeared in the Ottawa Citizen, March 20, 2023

The province's government debt burden equals 38.7 per cent of the provincial economy.

Ford rejects Harris spending approach and follows path of Wynne and Rae

Ben Eisen

Ontario is approaching an all-time high in inflation-adjusted per-person spending.

Ontario government’s spending habits belie claims of fiscal restraint

Jake Fuss

The province's spending is forecasted to be $29.4 billion higher than previously projected for 2022/23.

Ontario government spent more than $70 billion on corporate welfare

Tegan Hill, Joel Emes

Appeared in the Toronto Star, March 15, 2023

Roughly half of all business income tax revenue collected by the province was sent back to select firms and industries.